LH surges can last from 12 to 36 hours, and precede Ov. Did you keep checking your surge after that first positive OPK? Maybe the surge lasted longer than you thought?
Not sure about the P4, it might be to early, but it might pick up some of the progesterone, enough to tell you did Ov. Sorta iffy on that.
Your chart does look like you Ov'ed though. Hope you can figure this out.
Best of luck.
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Clomid 50mg, 100mg = No Ov!
100mg= Ov, BFN
150mg= No Ov!
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